West News Wire: The United Nations has warned that it is almost inevitable that the coming five years will be the warmest time ever seen as a result of the interaction between El Nino and greenhouse emissions that will cause temperatures to surge.
According to the World Meteorological Organisation, it is now more likely than not that global temperatures will rise by 1.5 degrees Celsius (2.7 degrees Fahrenheit) or more before 2027.
However, it does not necessarily follow that the globe will surpass the 1.5C pre-industrial warming threshold set forth in the 2015 Paris Agreement.
The El Nino weather pattern that is predicted to emerge in the upcoming months may have an impact, according to the WMO.
The cooling La Nina conditions over the past three years, which ended in March 2023, have restricted the rise in global temperatures.
However, the tropical Pacific will heat the atmosphere above due to the El Nino natural phenomena, increasing global temperatures.
According to WMO Secretary General Petteri Taalas, it “will combine with human-induced climate change to push global temperature into uncharted territory.”
The effects on human health, food security, water management, and the environment will be significant. We have to be ready.
Whether you live in the impoverished world or the northern hemisphere, the risk is real for everyone, according to Jemilah Mahmood, a doctor and expert with the Malaysia Climate Action Council, who spoke to reporters.
“When we have governance that favours the development of fossil fuels, no amount of effort or advocacy in the climate area is sufficient. We must reconsider the causes of all the inaction.
She said the WMO report left her feeling “angry”.
“The UN has described the situation we are in as one of complex ambiguity. How can we accept this rising number year after year while asking why there is a greater need for humanitarian aid?
According to Adam Scaife, head of long-range prediction at the British Met Office Hadley Centre and co-author of the WMO’s most recent Annual to Decadal Climate Update, with a 66 percent chance of momentarily exceeding 1.5C by 2027, “it’s the first time in history that it’s more likely than not that we will exceed 1.5C.”
The WMO also estimated that there is a 98 percent possibility that one of the next five years would surpass 2016 in terms of global temperature rise, which was roughly 1.3C.
Unlike the UN Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change’s climate projections, which are based on future greenhouse gas emissions, the WMO’s predictions are made on long-range weather forecasts.
The frequency of these severe temperatures is rising, according to Leon Hermanson, a Met Office scientist who worked on the paper. “There have been floods in many parts of the world, there have been droughts all over the world, [and] they are increasing in frequency,” he told news reporters.
Although it must be cold for snow to form, there are more spots that were previously too cold to have much moisture in the air – and now they are getting a lot of snow. We’re even witnessing excessive snowfall in certain regions.
The 2015 Paris Agreement outlined long-term objectives to help countries cut petrol emissions and limit the rise in the global temperature this century to 2C while aiming for a higher limit of 1.5C.
But the likelihood of temporarily exceeding 1.5C has increased over time as human-induced greenhouse gasses have led to increased ocean heating, sea ice and glacier melting.
Between 2017 and 2021, there was a 10 percent chance of exceeding the 1.5C threshold.